A Nation of Vulnerabilities
Jordan's small size makes it highly vulnerable to external factors, such as ongoing regional conflicts and its significant humanitarian obligations to refugee populations. These pressures have caused its economic outlook to deteriorate, with its external debt projected to exceed 85% of its GDP.
Projected Debt Composition (% of GDP)
This chart from our analysis projects Jordan's key debt metrics as a percentage of its GDP through 2030. It shows a high but slowly declining government gross debt, while the external financing needed each year remains a persistent challenge.
Growth of Multilateral Loans (2022-2024)
This chart, using corrected quarterly data from our research, shows the total outstanding loans from multilateral institutions to Jordan. The data shows a dip in mid-2022 followed by a steady and significant increase through mid-2024, underscoring the country's recent reliance on IFIs.
Bridging the Financing Gap
While Jordan faces a persistent external financing gap, its small nominal size works in its favor. Our data shows that the gap is projected to be almost entirely filled by identified official financing from institutions like the World Bank, the EU, and the EIB. This diverse support is crucial; while Jordan's external debt is high relative to its own income, it remains small in nominal terms compared to the fiscal capacity of its regional and global backers, allowing them to provide stabilizing support without requiring large new IMF loans.
Conclusion: A High-Wire Balancing Act
Our analysis shows that Jordan navigates a precarious balance. While its debt levels are concerningly high, its stability is underwritten by strong, diversified support from international partners. This strategy of managed stability, however, hinges on continued donor goodwill and regional peace.